Alexander Mitchell, Dixie State University
Ebola is a disease transmitted by contact with the bodily fluids of those infected and can lead to internal bleeding, organ failure, and death. One method used to suppress the spread of Ebola is contact tracing, which consists of documenting and quarantining those who have come into contact with an infected individual. To understand the spread and containment of Ebola, we need to better understand the relationship between the suppression of the disease and the use of contact tracing, which is the focus of this project. We developed a mathematical model utilizing a system of differential equations with the goal of investigating how contact tracing affects transmission dynamics and outbreak behavior, specifically as it relates to the 2014-2016 Ebola Zaire outbreak. We then validated our model with data from the World Health Organization and used sensitivity analysis to quantify the usefulness of the different aspects of contact tracing. Furthermore, we applied matrix theory to explore the dynamics of our model and ran numerical simulations to verify the model’s predictions and explore the use of multiple control strategies in effectively containing the Ebola virus. As a result we found that contact tracing has a large effect on the epidemic when used between 150 and 800 days into the epidemic, and has little effect outside of this time range. The results from this model can be used to help optimize the allocation of resources in future Ebola outbreaks.