Author(s): Sofia Price, Isabella Akers, Riley Cummings, Jacqueline Helm, Gracyn Hinojosa, Caleb Kensinger, Juliana Moyano, Daxton Sorensen, Abigail Swanson, Abigail
Mentor(s): Shane Macfarlan, Cindy Greaves
Institution U of U
Multi-year droughts are increasing globally leading to a cascade of negative natural-human system outcomes. This is especially true for rural pastoral populations who rely on local ecological conditions for provisioning livestock, as they typically lack access to state and market-based institutions for navigating climate variability. However, socio-economic diversity within populations can lead people to experience ecological shocks differently. For example, it is often assumed that relatively wealthier households will engage in high-risk, high-reward activities (e.g. large livestock production - cattle) because they can afford the upfront and maintenance costs more so than poorer households, who typically engage in small-livestock production (e.g., goats). However, during a multi-year drought, large livestock are more susceptible to mortality as their resource requirements are more heavily impacted by drought conditions, potentially leading households with larger cattle herds to experience worse economic outcomes relative to goat herders. To test this proposition, we performed semi-structured interviews with 98 rural ranchers in Baja California Sur, Mexico to understand the severity of the implications of the drought occurring from 2020-2022. We found that 1) cattle ranchers inversely experienced better economic and comparative outcomes 2) and that goat herders experienced greater relative livelihood change when trying to navigate the drought leading them to perceive worse outcomes. These discoveries challenge assumptions about livestock resilience in arid climates and offer valuable insights into sustainable ranching practices in the face of climate extremes.