Authors: Ian Eggleston, Ashley N Egan
Mentors: Ashley N Egan
Insitution: Utah Valley University
Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) is a very useful technique that gives us insight into a species’ present and possible future ranges, habitats, and niches. ENM has applications within conservational biology as models can be used to understand the extent to which climate change may impact a species. Additionally, ENM can be useful for prospecting for and propagation of rare plant species. This project will use ENM to create predictive range models for a rare plant species, Pediomelum aromaticum, with the goal of defining an ecological niche, determining impact of climate change, and general conservation of P. aromaticum. Here, we will compare 19 bioclimatic variables using correlation analysis and ecological niche modeling to determine which are the most impactful on the range of P. aromaticum. Additionally, ENMs will be created using the MAXENT algorithm from historical and predicted future climate data. By comparing these models, we can hypothesize as to how climate change may impact P. aromaticum. Finally, models will be compared between predicted climate futures defined as shared socio-economic pathways or SSP. SSP models estimate the impacts of human interactions within the scope of environment, governments, and each other to estimate the impact of varying sets of human interactions as defined by modified global behaviors within humanity and the impacts on global climate change. Different ENM models will be created with different SSP climate models so that we can understand how actions taken by humanity right now may impact the critically imperiled species P. aromaticum.